China new world super power?

[Gugo7]

What do you guys thinks of China's situation as far as surpassing the US as a world super power. The way I see it if it wasnt for Sars (which in my opinion was set up by the US) China would of suprpass the US within the next couple years. I think the US knows how much potential China has to grow and become even more powerfull so they are doing anything they can to pervent it from happening. However my theory is that China within the next 10 years will become an overwhelming power in the world. I just want to hear what you guys have to think about it. And these is all my opinion i am not saying its true or not but thats just how i see it.

[dirkpitt]

Originally Posted by Gugo7

The way I see it if it wasnt for Sars (which in my opinion was set up by the US) China would of suprpass the US within the next couple years. I think the US knows how much potential China has to grow and become even more powerfull so they are doing anything they can to pervent it from happening. However my theory is that China within the next 10 years will become an overwhelming power in the world. I just want to hear what you guys have to think about it. And these is all my opinion i am not saying its true or not but thats just how i see it.

And the highway to their success is paved with stolen american intellectual property, unfair trading practices and complete disregard for human rights. In my opinion of course.

[ce417]

Originally Posted by dirkpitt

And the highway to their success is paved with stolen american intellectual property, unfair trading practices and complete disregard for human rights. In my opinion of course.

Is there any other way?

[Helix]

They are definately gearing up for it. They are definately going to become a super power. But will they top the charts? I don't know. The US is going through a slump right now with a ineffective and harmful administration not to mention that war going on. I'm hoping that we can turn things around soon.

China needs to fix some problems before they can be world leaders. To borrow from Mr. Bush, they need "freedom and liberty" for all their citizens. There is tons of censorship among other things over there. Their stance on the environment is non-existant. I really really hope they literally clean up their act.

[ediblesound]

they obviously don't get digitally imported much in china either...

[HardcoreRevolution]

the US will always be number one.. but it's cool,that are countries are "trying".

[Gugo7]

Jump off topic real quick, i was getting flamed by some forum member beacuse i started a thread in Backyard "What are you wearing right now?" and that thread got about 50posts in half an hour. And i start a thread aboult political issues and it barley gets 5 posts in 5 hours. Just something i noticed just now wanted to address it.

[byte]

Originally Posted by HardcoreRevolution

the US will always be number one.. but it's cool,that are countries are "trying".

How many world superpowers have remained superpowers forever? Oh yeah, none.

[Sentinel]

I'm not sure where to begin....

Firstly, there should be a poll choice "Improve status, but not to the point of surpassing the US". I don't think the second choice is even reasonable. Clearly China is changing, so it's not going to be in the SAME position as it is now. If the last choice applies to only the next ten years, then that will be my vote.

Secondly, let's define superpower. In terms of military might, I doubt the US will be toppled any time in the next 50 years unless there is a major global event. Some people think that China is gearing up to go on a territorial binge, utilizing their vast population and budding economy to back up their political motives of conquest. I don't really see this as being viable until China can reach at the very minimum American levels of nationalism. Otherwise, any attampt by their government to act in an aggressive manner would most likely lead to a power struggle and possibly a coup d'etate (though the later is doubtful). At the very least, China needs its people to be happier and in higher living conditions for conquest. Either that, or the people must be so desperate as to believe that only a very rash move will save them.

More and more, power is defined economically. China is building up it's economy using the US as a cruch. For example, they value their currency in terms of the dollar. They keep the dollar at a high value and their own currency at a low value so that the US continues to maintain a trade deficit with China (caused by China's goods being reletively cheaper because of the currency values). In turn, China uses the influx of dollars to fund capital investment, which will eventually lead the country's economy towards a more prosperous state. Many people is China are seeing an increase in living standards because of the current situation, and I think they will want to continue to be part of the global community because of that. Therefore, I don't think China will try to pull a fast one on the rest of the world by say, invading a neighbor. I would way that China has at least 20 years before they can rival the US or Western Europe or Japan (on a side note, Japan's economy is very strong).

Finally, the whole SARS thing is silly. It's just another stupid conspiracy theory. Look at the possible motivations for planting a virus now: I see a country on the rise that still poses no threat and should never pose a threat as long as US economic policy remains sound and investors continue to invest in US companies, which are the ones developing new products. Chinese factories are still only immitators. The US could probably completely cripple China at the cost of a little domestic GDP and probably international sanctions, but we could still do it if we really wanted to by restricting trade with China because China is so heavily dependent on our economy.

10 years is too soon.

edit: In what way has SARS slowed China down at all?

[travelyogatrance]

Originally Posted by byte

How many world superpowers have remained superpowers forever? Oh yeah, none.

exactly-

Rome, Ottoman Empire, Spain, France, the UK...they all fell from their positions as superpowers. So, eventually, will the US.

[Dustwave]

I think china will surpass the US, but i don't think within the next 10 years. They have so incredibly much potential (okay lots of it is stolen and designing things is probably theirs worst side ), but eventually they will surpass the US. If that will bring them to the top of the list...who knows...

Btw, ever knew why asia always was sort of "behind" on everything in history? Because they have rice and we have grain

[ediblesound]

is that a joke???

[excercyst]

China has been a superpower for the last 5000 years, in case anybody noticed.
They just took a hiatus in the twentieth century.
Slow to catch on to that whole industrial thing.

[ediblesound]

and that's precisely what i was about to say-
as it's very wise....


say what would happen in the event of computers all failing???? who's the superpower???


it almost frightens me when i see all these digital warfare reliances...
in the book the art of war there are some things to be said about relying on things...

[THE TRUTH]

Since when was China NOT ALREADY a superpower?

[Ishkur]

The defeat of Japan in World War II and the decision of USA President Richard Nixon to prevent the USSR from launching a pre-emptive air and missile strike against Chinese nuclear and industrial facilities enabled China to emerge after 600 years of dormancy to become a Global Power, with Shanghai being developed as the next major city of Earth.

Asia, dominated by China, will account for 45% of the Gross Domestic Product of Earth in the year 2015, while the U.S. will account for 25% and the European Union for 15%.

(stats taken from an article in the Wall Street Journal of 1997 March 20 by Charles Wolf, dean of the RAND Graduate School of Policy Studies and a corporate fellow in international economics at RAND)

It is expected that China's GDP will ultimately surpass the US by about 2015, both of them teetering at around $11.5 trillion.

With its large politically stable population of low-wage labor, China will be very suitable for low-wage factories. With its relatively well-organized government and stablizing PLA, China will encourage location of industrial factories within its borders, both to raise its industrial productivity and to secure techology needed to modernize and develop its indigenouse industrial base. Therefore, China is a prime region for the Multi-National Corporations of USA-Europe-Japan to build new factories.

Even if the Multi-National Corporations of USA-Europe-Japan fail in their effort to maximize their profits form a Global Economy, China might prosper based on its own internal resources of industry, raw materials, labor, and social stability. In a series of five articles running 15-19 February 1999, The New York Times said: "... As for China, it has evaded the [financial] crisis, and what saved it from catastrophe may in part have been its unwillingness to listen to Western economists. Urged to make its currency freely tradable with the dollar, it resisted. If the Chinese yuan had been convertible, then Chinese would have sent their money fleeing as Thais and Indonesians did, and China might also be mired in a major financial crisis. China claims economic growth last year of almost 8 percent -- a tribute to the government's $1.2 trillion stimulus plan ...".

The growth of China came under the rule of Deng Xiaoping. Whether the growth will continue after his death is problematical, because his successor Jiang Zemin seems to be returning to doctrinaire Marxism and repressive actions reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution, and, under Jiang Zemin, China may be drifting into an adversarial relationship with the USA.

As China's low wages attract manufacturing plants to move to China from the USA and Japan, conflict may arise as the USA and Japan lose not only jobs but the ability to manufacture goods within their own borders, thus possibly making Chinese labor unions the dominant political force on Earth by 2020.

Long story short: It is almost obvious that principal battle for power and global influence, fought for the possibility to translate one's cultural codes and national strong points into reality, is to be staged between the Atlantic and Pacific civilizations. By 2015 or 2020 economic potentials of the two will be almost equal.

I predict: By 2010 or 2020 ... Hordes of chinese will be swarming across the Russian border. The U.S. and Russia will receive about one million refugees each (this is already starting to happen; it's a common occurance for the Coast Guard to find boats smuggling people off the shores of BC). Europe will give shelter to 500 thousand. ... by 2020, the authoritarian Chinese regime will have expelled another 5 million of its citizens out of China. This time, 90 percent of expats will settle down in Southeast Asia, in order to go back to China in a few years. Their forced expulsion from the homeland will in reality turn out to have been a Trojan horse, meaning a mere migration and "occupying" new territories. ... the regime ... in China .... will [be *********n by]... a storm of public indignation over cruel treatment of fellow-countrymen ... giving place to a new policy of pragmatism. ... China ... will develop complex hierarchical collectivist systems instead, with personal and group interests ingeniously harmonized inside of them. ... competition in itself will never make a locomotive of the economy ...[in China]... but the tradition to coordinate individual and group interests, rooted in specifically "Oriental", communal and economy-centered psychology, will in return prove super-efficient and beyond the understanding of individualist-thinking Europeans and Americans....

[Ishkur]

Originally Posted by THE TRUTH

Since when was China NOT ALREADY a superpower?

When they got their asses handed to them by the Mongols, the French, the Dutch, the British, the Japanese and the Russians.

[gh0zt]

The Earth can only handle so many superpowers at any given time.

[Juna]

Originally Posted by byte

How many world superpowers have remained superpowers forever? Oh yeah, none.

This is very true. Look at the British Empire. A hundred years ago we ruled about nine tenths of the planet.

Today that's all gone. All we have is our own little country. And Australia....sort of.

There's no doubting Asia covers a colossal amount of the planet's surface. And there's billions of them. They certainly have the capabilities to become a super power.

Interesting fact: today there are more people in China learning the English language than the entire population of America. o_O

How it will actually turn out though, is still hard to tell. East versus West seems to be the way that things have always gone. And it does kind of make sense. Two opposing forces. Yin and Yang.

Quite scary when you think what it could lead to. And kind of mad when you realise that both sides are only trying to do what's right for their people.

[Sentinel]

Ishkur, excellent post; I always enjoy reading yours. But I still think you are setting the timeline far too early. 2015 is really close for so much to happen by then. Possibly the GDPs will equal, but the other things you mentioned (global power) are unlikely to manifest by 2020. As for your last few lines about population shifting - I can only say that it's an interesting idea, and I am curious as to how such a thing would take place, but only time will tell.