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View Poll Results: Where do you see China in next 10 years?
Surpassing the US as a world super power 47 55.29%
Remaining in the same situation 24 28.24%
Nobody will surpass the US 14 16.47%
Voters: 85. You may not vote on this poll

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Unread Jan 7th, 2006, 01:32 AM   #41 (permalink)
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I believe that in time China will be considered a superpower, China has a rapidly growing economy and due to cheap labour much buisness will be conducted there. with a large population there is room for more economic growth but with a large population there can be a poor quality of life and the one child rule which has its benifits can be a detrement to its growth if there is an imbalance in the male/female births ratio.

and thats my 2 cents
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Unread Jan 7th, 2006, 02:52 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Basically, China will never surpass the US in the foreseeable future for one very important reason: while it's true that the Chinese economy is growing almost exponentially, rememebr that this economy is owned mostly by the US and that it is also mostly based on China's status as a 3rd world country (cheap labour, people willing to work in horrible conditions etc.). If China ever became a threat to the US, all these factories would be pulled and bye bye Chinese economy - they do not have enough resources to support themselves.
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Unread Jan 8th, 2006, 12:03 AM   #43 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoJo
Exactly! The education in America is FAR worse than most other countries you can think of. It's not really the education system at fault... it's the kids in school. They don't want to learn and it's already taking effect. The number of foreign engineers in the U.S. is increasing exponentially every year. In contrast, you have some of the most educated countries in the world including Germany, Japan, India, etc... Education systems vary by culture... and some cultures do not like others...
absolutely. Robert too i suspect that this is largely because education does very little to improve the life of the average american, a skilled laborer in america can out earn doctors in most of the world. education reform is essential to american viability.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anarise
Basically, China will never surpass the US in the foreseeable future for one very important reason: while it's true that the Chinese economy is growing almost exponentially, rememebr that this economy is owned mostly by the US and that it is also mostly based on China's status as a 3rd world country (cheap labour, people willing to work in horrible conditions etc.). If China ever became a threat to the US, all these factories would be pulled and bye bye Chinese economy - they do not have enough resources to support themselves.
very true. GDP is "Domestic Production" which says nothing about where that money goes.... i havent seen the figures but i know that a HUGE portion is right here in the states. conceivably america could become something like the next switzerland (a neutral banking/stock market super power... *sighs* wouldnt that be nice). ah, dreams......
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Unread Jan 8th, 2006, 08:33 AM   #44 (permalink)
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"* This is a Politics-free zone, please do not share your political views or news here."

Now I don't want to be a stick in the mud, but given that the above qoute IS stated plainly and clearly in the TOS or "forum rules" etc... why is a clearly POLITICAL DISCUSSION allowed to continue on for three or four pages?

Perhaps one of the "moderators" or "ptb" could answer this.

Because I find it really odd that threads like this wich may take a different more pro American/western civlization view are locked and closed in the proverbial N.Y. second.
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Unread Jan 8th, 2006, 01:59 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Because we are civil, and are having a respectful, enlightening conversation.

DI just doesn't like stupid flamewars and vicious insults flung at everybody from partisan idiots.
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Unread Jan 8th, 2006, 05:57 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Angelicus, I think this thread is a sort of flagship for the _possible_ rebirth of the current events section. See Ari's posts about forum changes. http://forums.di.fm/the-chill-room/thoughts-on-expandng-the-forums-93718/

Back on topic, what do you all see as milestones that China would have to pass on it's way to becomming a "superpower"?

I think that it needs to:
1. Increase it's GDP per capita to at least Russia's level (from $5,600 to $9,800)
2. Have a 'good' reputation as a country that is stable for investment and is also a good place to live
3. Stop balancing its currency against the US dollar, and stop being so dependent on US foreign investment.

Just my opinions ^

Oh and some FACTS
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 01:59 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angelicus
"* This is a Politics-free zone, please do not share your political views or news here."

Now I don't want to be a stick in the mud, but given that the above qoute IS stated plainly and clearly in the TOS or "forum rules" etc... why is a clearly POLITICAL DISCUSSION allowed to continue on for three or four pages?

Perhaps one of the "moderators" or "ptb" could answer this.

Because I find it really odd that threads like this wich may take a different more pro American/western civlization view are locked and closed in the proverbial N.Y. second.

Okay then lets only talk about random shit like what we are eating or wearing, lets not try to be at least alittle bit educational. I dont want to just read bullshit all day on the forums want to see something worth reading something you can learn from. And i think that we can all here learn something from each other.
Everyone here has alot of great points keep em coming guys. I agree with alot of your comments and ideas which alot of them are true in one way or another. No country becomes a superpower over night there is alot of work and China has alot of work to do. I strongly agree that China needs to stop being so dependant on the US. Lets say for instance they stop the US trade, What happens to the US then? China is the biggest import the US has, US will be forced to pay higher prices for the same goods they were getting from China from another place or even worse start producing the goods themselfs. I cant honestly say China is going to be the next superpower beacuse non of us honestly know, could be anyone Japan, Germany, even just maybe Russia might get back into strong power. China and Russia are sleeping giants god knows when they will awake and what will happen.
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 03:20 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentinel
what do you all see as milestones that China would have to pass on it's way to becomming a "superpower"?
Quick question first: What kind of superpower are we talking about?

Economic? EU is building up its collective economic power.
Cultural? The English has a lot of control in culture.
Military? Russia still has significant military might.
Demographics? China and India both have huge population.
Idealism? There are 33% Christians (decreasing) and 19% Muslims (increasing).

Last edited by Pb : Jan 9th, 2006 at 03:26 PM.
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 03:36 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentinel
Angelicus, I think this thread is a sort of flagship for the _possible_ rebirth of the current events section. See Ari's posts about forum changes. http://forums.di.fm/showthread.php?t=93718

Back on topic, what do you all see as milestones that China would have to pass on it's way to becomming a "superpower"?

I think that it needs to:
1. Increase it's GDP per capita to at least Russia's level (from $5,600 to $9,800)
2. Have a 'good' reputation as a country that is stable for investment and is also a good place to live
3. Stop balancing its currency against the US dollar, and stop being so dependent on US foreign investment.

Just my opinions ^

Oh and some FACTS

thats is far from nesesary...

just look at old soviet union...

wowthis is the best thread in this forum so far since a lot of time
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 03:36 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gugo7
What do you guys thinks of China's situation as far as surpassing the US as a world super power. The way I see it if it wasnt for Sars (which in my opinion was set up by the US) China would of suprpass the US within the next couple years. I think the US knows how much potential China has to grow and become even more powerfull so they are doing anything they can to pervent it from happening. However my theory is that China within the next 10 years will become an overwhelming power in the world. I just want to hear what you guys have to think about it. And these is all my opinion i am not saying its true or not but thats just how i see it.

china's economy is predicted to overtake america economically in like 30-50 years or something like that,,,
,,that doesnt necessarily mean china will have the majority of influence,,
people arent going to suddenly stop idealising america,want to emigrate to china over america and get jobs,watch american movies over chinese,or choose chinese over english as their second language,though china's influence on its near neigbours in this way will increase,on the world stage it will mostly be the same,there are more chinese people on this planet than any other nation,but they are all concentrated in one place!!...

...surely nothing short of colonisation can overtake the influence the british empire(and other european empires) has had on the world ,this includes america,australia,and alot of their other colonies,,though they are all very differnt now,,basically england exported alot of its culture,language,beliefs to these places,,,and now america is doing it through music,film,wealth,and promise of jobs,,,
..china is cutting alot of corners to get ahead economically..i'm not saying they cant become the next world super power,,i'm just saying one cant say they definately will,,,though my personal opinion is that they wont
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Last edited by bobbymathews : Jan 9th, 2006 at 03:39 PM.
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 03:44 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pb
Quick question first: What kind of superpower are we talking about?

Economic? EU is building up its collective economic power.
Cultural? The English has a lot of control in culture.
Military? Russia still has significant military might.
Demographics? China and India both have huge population.
Idealism? There are 33% Christians (decreasing) and 19% Muslims (increasing).
well as far as i see thing with the world as it its right now... has only one culturall superpower, and of course as you say is england.. the british empire exported a lot of his way of living into what we know as western countries .. and even countries that dont use capitalism or have a nonlaic governemnt are starting to adapt this this ''culture''

about the military.. well is indiscutibl that USA is by much the number one there... the number of soldries doesnt matter ( china has the biggest army) but is theadvantage in air combat, and america has all the best candy side of the town... hell russia is struging to find money to make his own 5 generation fighter

population is a factor yes... but not as important imo

hell lets not start to talk about religion!

off course i think that the direction of this thread is towards the economic part...
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 03:48 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gugo7
What do you guys thinks of China's situation as far as surpassing the US as a world super power.

I'm fearing the day that the U.S. falls. As in "bye-bye" no more U.S. It's going to happen.
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 04:48 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Quote:
i'm not saying they cant become the next world super power,,i'm just saying one cant say they definately will,,,though my personal opinion is that they wont
I never said they definatly could i said they got a pretty good chance and i agree that noone can say for sure. Im not saying China is going to be next superpower im saying it has a good chance and i think they will you have the right to disagree
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 04:58 PM   #54 (permalink)
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I think I posted this quote in the past but perhaps it’s worth repeating.

“Let China sleep for when she awakes, she will shake the world," Napoleon Bonaparte.

For at least the past 20 years or more the U.S. has been unable to export sufficient goods to pay for its imports consequently its trade deficits have continued to increase. Currently, and I believe for the first time in modern US history, food imports exceed exports and this is forecast to become worse and despite the current administrations move to include the fast food sector as “manufacturing “ the US is loosing thousands of manufacturing jobs to China despite the overall number of jobless falling. However in the Hi tech sector unemployment is rising at a much higher rate than the overall workforce rate, jobs the public were led to believe would not be out sourced to India and China.
At first sight this seems a strange conundrum. How can the US economy be on the one hand doing well but on the other facing collapse.
The biggest importer to the US is undoubtedly China and as the Yuan is tied to the dollar and the value of the dollar continues to fall imports from China increase their competitiveness. So how do we see such impressive recent growth figures in the USA?
The reason as I see it is that China is recycling the monthly 20- 40 billion trade surplus with the US back into dollars, and especially into US Treasury bonds of which circa 50% are owned by Asian countries, predominantly China and Japan. China already owns many trillion dollars of US assets and that figure is rising also. So in effect China is financing several US led wars, a massive budget and trade deficit, plus huge tax giveaways for the richest Americans.
It surely follows that China is financing the US economy at an increasing rate year on year and will continue to do so. It is well know that without Asian support the US dollar would be on the floor and thus less able to pay for its ever rising imports so the US along with other world economies are already dancing to the Chinese tune.

At present I am of the opinion that fiscally China and the USA are engaged in an extra ordinary balancing act although the outcomes must in the long term favour the Chinese and I have no doubt that when the time comes to push the US around China will do so.
The Saudis are said to have tried it before and had some effect, although without anywhere near the economic muscle available to the Chinese.
Just imagine the outcome if the China dumped all its dollar holdings overnight. The US economy would collapse and much of the worlds with it.
It is unable to do so at the moment but if in the future they are successful in having oil priced in Euros and continue to drive the Yuan Euro exchange rate in the way they have then China will have an opportunity to pay for their energy needs in a currency other than dollars. This in turn may give the meaning of super power a whole new dimension.
Will it happen in the next ten or twenty years I guess that’s a Chinese call.
Globalisation has its costs and we are beginning to understand what they may be.
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 06:21 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by D J Kings
as the Yuan is tied to the dollar and the value of the dollar continues to fall imports from China increase their competitiveness
Minor correction: the Yuan is no longer tied to the dollar. The effects might not show for another few years, though.

Currency is a very good point, since the USD is only backed by treasury bonds (borrowing notes). It is interesting that the USD is floated by various European and Asian countries. If they all lose their faith in the USD, it would be catastrophic. I seemed to recall that Japan had to prop up the USD a few years ago.

Last edited by Pb : Jan 9th, 2006 at 06:53 PM.
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Unread Jan 9th, 2006, 10:24 PM   #56 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by D J Kings
For at least the past 20 years or more the U.S. has been unable to export sufficient goods to pay for its imports consequently its trade deficits have continued to increase.
For some reason, you seem to think a trade deficit is a sign of a weak US economy. The real reason we have a trade deficit is that we have such a STRONG economy. The strength of our economy (which is not just manufacturing - in fact it's mostly not manufacturing) allows the US to buy goods from around the world instead of producing them. It's not really an issue of how much we are not producing; it's an issue of how much money we have available to spend and invest, due to our capital-based (investment, not manufaturing) economy. We just have too much money NOT to have a trade deficit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by D J Kings
At first sight this seems a strange conundrum. How can the US economy be on the one hand doing well but on the other facing collapse.
The biggest importer to the US is undoubtedly China and as the Yuan is tied to the dollar and the value of the dollar continues to fall imports from China increase their competitiveness. So how do we see such impressive recent growth figures in the USA?
Just imagine the outcome if the China dumped all its dollar holdings overnight. The US economy would collapse and much of the worlds with it.
It is unable to do so at the moment but if in the future they are successful in having oil priced in Euros and continue to drive the Yuan Euro exchange rate in the way they have then China will have an opportunity to pay for their energy needs in a currency other than dollars. This in turn may give the meaning of super power a whole new dimension.
Will it happen in the next ten or twenty years I guess that’s a Chinese call.
Globalisation has its costs and we are beginning to understand what they may be.
Also, driving the dollar down is very bad for the Chinese, and that is why they keep it inflated, as you mentioned in reference to US securities. China buys securities, the US people get more dollars to spend (imagine giving a bank money in exchange for a CD), then the US dollar is worth more on foreign markets (because there is less of it when China gives it back to the US), and finally, US people are able to buy more Chinese goods, which have gotten relatively cheaper in comparison to the strong US dollar, and Chinese workers have jobs to feed their families.

The downside to this policy is that Chinese workers end up making those sweatshop wages when compared to US wages because the Yuan has been lowered in value by the the Chinese government (see above). And then Chinese workers can't afford foreign goods.

Until Chinese workers are able to afford foreign goods, meaning the above cycle of deflating the Yuan has been broken, Chinese people cannot enjoy a high standard of living. If you are really worried about the deficit (which of course can't be maintained indefinately without detrimental effects) save your money. The average American saves less than 1% of his/her income, whereas the average Chinese person saves something like 35%. And you wondered why so much of our money is being exported?
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Unread Jan 10th, 2006, 01:27 AM   #57 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pb
Minor correction: the Yuan is no longer tied to the dollar. The effects might not show for another few years, though.

Currency is a very good point, since the USD is only backed by treasury bonds (borrowing notes). It is interesting that the USD is floated by various European and Asian countries. If they all lose their faith in the USD, it would be catastrophic. I seemed to recall that Japan had to prop up the USD a few years ago.
You are right of course (thanks for the link) ,technically the Yuan is no longer officially pegged to the dollar at 8.28 renminbi, and was revalued on July 21, 2005 to 8.11 per U.S. dollar, following the removal of the peg and now trades at 8.0665, which is still within a very narrow band and unlike many other currencies is not really free to float in my opinion. I don’t think this rate reflects the true position and is a political move rather than any attempt to correct the imbalance.
The Japanese support did not last long and I believe that the US dollar is down about 30% since then but have not checked . If the yuan strengthens in value as it must do against the euro yen and won it can only mean that we will all have to pay considerably more for our imports, upon which we are becoming ever more dependant, whilst at the same time the means of production in our own countries collapses. To my mind this cannot be good for any of us in the longer term.
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Unread Jan 10th, 2006, 04:14 AM   #58 (permalink)
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I believe, centuries from now, historians will look back on this and say that going off the Gold Standard was the stupidest thing modern economics has ever done.
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Unread Jan 10th, 2006, 04:49 AM   #59 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentinel
For some reason, you seem to think a trade deficit is a sign of a weak US economy. The real reason we have a trade deficit is that we have such a STRONG economy. The strength of our economy (which is not just manufacturing - in fact it's mostly not manufacturing) allows the US to buy goods from around the world instead of producing them. It's not really an issue of how much we are not producing; it's an issue of how much money we have available to spend and invest, due to our capital-based (investment, not manufaturing) economy. We just have too much money NOT to have a trade deficit.



Also, driving the dollar down is very bad for the Chinese, and that is why they keep it inflated, as you mentioned in reference to US securities. China buys securities, the US people get more dollars to spend (imagine giving a bank money in exchange for a CD), then the US dollar is worth more on foreign markets (because there is less of it when China gives it back to the US), and finally, US people are able to buy more Chinese goods, which have gotten relatively cheaper in comparison to the strong US dollar, and Chinese workers have jobs to feed their families.

The downside to this policy is that Chinese workers end up making those sweatshop wages when compared to US wages because the Yuan has been lowered in value by the the Chinese government (see above). And then Chinese workers can't afford foreign goods.

Until Chinese workers are able to afford foreign goods, meaning the above cycle of deflating the Yuan has been broken, Chinese people cannot enjoy a high standard of living. If you are really worried about the deficit (which of course can't be maintained indefinately without detrimental effects) save your money. The average American saves less than 1% of his/her income, whereas the average Chinese person saves something like 35%. And you wondered why so much of our money is being exported?
Yes I do believe that a trade deficit that is more than short term fundamentally undermines the nation state and the point I was making is that we individually and collectively have to earn a living in the real world. As the dollar reduces in value, as it has for some time now, it costs more dollars to pay for goods imported from china. If the same goods were manufactured in the US the value of the dollar would not be as critical although this also has changed dramatically due to soaring commodity prices driven by Chinese demand.
Since its industrialisation the US has been fortunate to have had a vast internal market for goods and services produced internally, but although this market still exists the US is spending money it does not have on goods it no longer produces. The long term effect, as the Asian economies mature, must mean increasing levels of unemployment in the US and rising inflation leading to stagnation. Yes you have lots of the green stuff but you print it don’t you and can continue to do so but unless it has a value in the world it becomes as unless as the mark between the wars

To repond to your second point
But is the dollar rising or falling, I think relatively it is falling. As you say “china gives it back” much like a parent might give pocket money, but if the parent did not give it back but moved it into rupees for instance where would the US economy be then. And I do agree that china keeps the dollar inflated but once again should it decide not to do so what then. Surely a great economic power like the US cannot place its future prosperity in the uncertain hands of a foreign power which is benign at the moment but may not be in the future.
Why would the Chinese worker want or need to buy foreign goods as like the US in years past they can buy high quality goods produced at home?
The savings ratio is a very valid point and one that was widely discussed as the Japanese economy expanded 30 years ago and we can now see the long term effect this has had on the US manufacturing base and I would argue that this has had a huge impact on US competitiveness.
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Unread Jan 10th, 2006, 04:52 AM   #60 (permalink)
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The USA is a third world country!

peasents!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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