China new world super power?

[acosta]

I do think the chinese economy is underestimated. Quite a portion of that is still in grey zone. Earlier this year the government just ajusted its econ size by 10% something.

You can never overlook a nation with 5000 years of civilization. If all essence of that 5000 years turned up, you bet they can be above all forseeable imagination. Thatcher is deadly wrong.

[D J Kings]

Originally Posted by acosta

I do think the chinese economy is underestimated. Quite a portion of that is still in grey zone. Earlier this year the government just ajusted its econ size by 10% something.

You can never overlook a nation with 5000 years of civilization. If all essence of that 5000 years turned up, you bet they can be above all forseeable imagination. Thatcher is deadly wrong.

Excellent point Acosta, much of the economy is grey and perhaps even more is black.

Way off topic, but in Spain when the Peseta was dropped in favour of the Euro the economy boomed as all the dinero negro (black money) was dragged out from under sundry mattresses all over the country. Thankfully throughout the Eurozone people were happy to pay, in cash, hugely inflated prices rather than take it to the bank where of course the friendly tax man awaited.

[acosta]

Nowdays good thing is everyone enjoy the status quo. US does, so do the rest of the world.

Whereever Ben is heading, the US econ is still growing, just as the Chinese have been doing so far. The harmony is now all-win achieved. We should all be happy. Economists are of course not , they are looking into the breakup of this harmony in some years and therefore, inventing the new theory.

[Yellowfin]

The way I see it, china is already in everyone's cabinets, dishwashers, and on their tables, so you could call that a takeover.

[silentstud]

Originally Posted by excercyst

China has been a superpower for the last 5000 years, in case anybody noticed.
They just took a hiatus in the twentieth century.
Slow to catch on to that whole industrial thing.

China has been slacking since the Ching took over .But after 300 ys of narcolepsy a brutal revolution or 2 and a generation that sacrificed their quality of life in order to get their descendants and the whole country on top,granted not all voluntered to sacrifice but it worked. Something we need to learn well. We have to get use to long term plans 10- 20 ys .

[siray]

The United States will remain the worlds sole superpower for the foreseeable future, China is growing faster than the United States, but China is still so far behind in terms of an established economy, its GDP of around 9% is unstainable. The US spends more on its military than the next 12 countries combined, spending close now to $0.5 trillion annually on its military it is the most technologically advanced nation investing heavily in research and development ( more than any other nation on earth), its GDP is in excess of $13 trillion. Some people say the United States has a bigger debt than any other nation, but as a percentage of its GDP it isnt significantly higher than other developed countries.

So i agree the United States may well one day be overtaken by China, but currently its dominance on the world stage is hard to play down, with a military capable of attacking any two nations at any one time, an economy bigger than any other by some margin.

[Anstice]

I doubt it. All they are is just a manufacturing country that the rich take advantage up. Granted, yes, it is very rich, but it's PPP is still very low. Every European country, even the Eastern European countries, surpass the PPP of China greatly. Nobody will surpass the US in the next hundred years. It has the most advanced military, an extremally large nuclear arsenal, the second or third highest PPP, a huge influence over the world, and basically a tight grip on the world's economy. If you're not an ally with the United States, you're a third world country and your people are starving. This isn't the Cold War anymore where if you weren't an ally with the US, you could still have influence. The US is on the level of a hyperpower, and the world hasn't seen anything like it. Ever.

China has a high GDP but.... high GDP w/ low PPP =/= Emerging Superpower. It means it's a country where the people are extremally poor.

[acosta]

US's strength is still in its stability. Any country in the world won't have that until the new superpower really comes around. USSR was superpower but collapsed instantly many years ago.

[Manchuhead]

O yeah,we succed,we surpass the US,we bacome the super power.
And what?
We are not dangerous...

[Legend]

I did not read the whole 7 pages of this thread so forgive if i post something that has already been said.

Regarding the whole China as a superpower thing, its important to look at the big macroeconomic picture that has developed across the world in the last 15-20 years. It is probably too long to describe here, but suffice it to say that US Debt that so many of you mentioned here directly enabled the rise of Chinese/Asian economies - US is the biggest consumer of all these goods (Much bigger then Europe, both Eastern and Western, and Asia/China itself). The American Consumer has been able to consume in such great quantities due to relatively easy access to credit, especially after the dot-com bubble. To save the economy from recession the fed gave people easy access to credit by lowering the interest rate to its historical bottom and created another bubble in real estate - only this one will affect the regular american joe once it pops (already started, if you follow the news around) much much more then the dotcom bubble. Consumer spending was able to keep up last few years because people kept extracting equity from their appreciating houses like they were some kind of endless ATM machines, while real wages and saving (adjusted to infaltion) continued to fall into negative. In 2006 "The house ATM" has finally ran out of cash and we are about to witness some pretty serious consequences. If the fed keeps rising rates there will be a major economic resession 1929 style. If the fed lowers the rate, the dollar will most likely collapse, and because dollar is still a reserve currency major global geopolitical consequences will follow.
Without getting into too much detail suffice it to say that if the US economy / consumer spending tanks - the whole global economy will tank hard core (1929 style, globally). Why do you think a lot of asian countries (such as china) refuse to unpeg their currencies from USD? Why do they continue to hold USD bonds (and continue to buy USD) while they know too well that US is in debt to their neck? Because the moment they stop (lending us free money to buy their goods to upkeep their economies) the worst will unfold and the consequences will be much more severe for all global players. The question is how long will it last? How long does everyone keep drinking the booze to prolong the party? Ofcourse the sad thing is eventually the party stops and the more booze you had, the shittier the recovery will be.

[DiBBLeS THe CaT]

Pb.. DJ Kings.. Sentinel.. Deyc3.. and Legend..

Quality and interesting Posts from all of you..

I have a heap of information and links to now collectively chew on..

[Wootman]

Originally Posted by Manchuhead

O yeah,we succed,we surpass the US,we bacome the super power.
And what?
We are not dangerous...

That would depend on what you say about the Chinese government wouldn't it?

[Xiare]

HI

Originally Posted by Legend

I did not read the whole 7 pages of this thread so forgive if i post something that has already been said.

Regarding the whole China as a superpower thing, its important to look at the big macroeconomic picture that has developed across the world in the last 15-20 years. It is probably too long to describe here, but suffice it to say that US Debt that so many of you mentioned here directly enabled the rise of Chinese/Asian economies - US is the biggest consumer of all these goods (Much bigger then Europe, both Eastern and Western, and Asia/China itself). The American Consumer has been able to consume in such great quantities due to relatively easy access to credit, especially after the dot-com bubble. To save the economy from recession the fed gave people easy access to credit by lowering the interest rate to its historical bottom and created another bubble in real estate - only this one will affect the regular american joe once it pops (already started, if you follow the news around) much much more then the dotcom bubble. Consumer spending was able to keep up last few years because people kept extracting equity from their appreciating houses like they were some kind of endless ATM machines, while real wages and saving (adjusted to infaltion) continued to fall into negative. In 2006 "The house ATM" has finally ran out of cash and we are abbot to witness some pretty serious consequences. If the fed keeps rising rates there will be a major economic resession 1929 style. If the fed lowers the rate, the dollar will most likely collapse, and because dollar is still a reserve currency major global geopolitical consequences will follow.
Without getting into too much detail suffice it to say that if thr US economy / consumer spending tanks - the whole global economy will tank hard core (1929 style, globally). Why do you think a lot of asian countries (such as china) refuse to unpeg their currencies from USD? Why do they continue to hold USD bonds (and continue to buy USD) while they know too well that US is in debt to their neck? Because the moment they stop (lending us free money to buy their goods to upkeep their economies) the worst will unfold and the consequences will be much more severe for all global players. The question is how long will it last? How long does everyone keep drinking the booze to prolong the party? Ofcourse the sad thing is eventually the party stops and the more booze you had, the shittier the recovery will be.

Well. You sure called that one!

[fugue]

Haven't read this whole thread either, but has anyone mentioned the Chinese government discrimination of Falun Gong?

A country full of corrupt government officials arbitrarily decides to suppress a religious group because they teach virtues such as honesty and were growing to a point where they were bigger than the communist party. So the government mandates the destruction of all their teachings, broadcasts images of them apparently performing acts of self-immolation to make them look crazy, and warrants their arrest, imprisonment, and torture. Is that the kind of country we really want to become a world power?

Nevermind Tiananmen Square which I'm sure must have been mentioned. And try searching these topics on the internet from within China. The communist party controls what you can and cannot see... and any independent media outlets are fully aware of the limits on what they are allowed to talk about.

I sincerely hope China does not become a world power or I am afraid it will be a huge step backwards for the world. US has its problems too, but at least the West has overcome a lot of the barbaric practices the Chinese government still uses to try to keep its huge population under control.

[kaizenmx]

What goes up comes down...

Today, china is having a massive real estate bubble, and that bubble is about to burst any minute now. They are building tons of houses and apartments where not a single person can afford. Their economy is mainly composed of cheap labor, which now companies around the world is pulling out from because of today's heavy regulations in china.

[jenessawilson06]

Generally in China production rate is very high as compare to the other countries, people of China are very fast as well as hard working.so it is also one of the reason of becoming superpower.

[Веселый Бурильщ]

[Fearpoint]

Economic, sure. That's only part of the equation though.

Superpowers have to have the "power" in super power to back up the bark and China doesn't have the bite capabilities, specifically logistical capabilities to influence anyone other than the smaller nations in SE Asia. They are building up their military because they want the capabilities, but they have decades to go before their even on the same field as the United States.

[MC_Paskaefekti]

Anyone who was part of this discussion six years ago around? I was just wondering if your opinions have changed since then? As for me, I took a class on US foreign policy last year, and the lecturer argued that China will surpass the US in every field, expect for military power, in the next 10 years. Unless the US gets its act together.