UK football (soccer), in particular Gretna - a record of records?

[JimProdz]

On the off chance there are any footy statisticians out there,
I wanted to draw attention to a new force in Scottish football, Gretna.
Last year, in the third division, they shattered the goals for record, as well as that league's goal difference and points total records (plus individual scorers record).
This year (and I think and hope I have got my facts straight), they have already beaten the division 2 goal difference record, which they should hold on to by the end of the season... and they need 3 wins from their last 4 games to beat the points total record for this division to which they have been promoted. They only need a poultry 5 goals from 4 games to take the goals scored record for that division too, meaning they could break the divisional records for goals scored, goal difference AND points total in two different divisions in two seasons! Would this be a record among records, I wonder?

A random stat: they have played 5 games against Division 1 opposition (all opponents at this moment in time in top 6 of that division, the division above Gretna)... and have emerged unbeaten and not even conceded a goal in those five games.

They have truly brought into the game now scoring rates usually associated with the attacking football of the late 1800s/early 1900s when the game started out. Even if they have only done so for a couple of seasons, it has made reading football results more fun for me.

Looking at the overall scottish league records, there are a few odd teams who have matched this scoring ability in the days when Scotland only had 2 leagues, but Gretna are right up there.

To sum up:
in their last 68 league games,
They have won 58, drawn 6, lost 4, scored 221, conceded 54.
Averaging over three goals a game over such a long period of time is great at this level,
and interestingly the letters of the word "great" can also be found in the club's name, Gretna!

[Juna]

lol, so you're a Gretna fan I take it?! They're doing pretty well, it looks!

I personally think the best unbeaten run by any club is Arsenal's about 18 months ago. An entire season unbeaten in the Premiership. 49 games in all, and when they finally lost it was to their arch-rivals Man U!

It was a joy to watch them at their best. And I'm not even a Gunner's fan.

[JimProdz]

I wouldn't call myself a fan but maybe an "appreciater of their record over the last two seasons"!
At http://www.londonhearts.com/scores/rec/index.htm you can see by how much Gretna broke the division 4 records (some people call them Divisions 1-4, some people call them Premier and 1-3...)

[DJ Mallorca]

Being a club run by a millionaire it was no shock to see Gretna score so many goals in their league existence. They signed players who were quite simply too good for the division they were in and the fact you get to drive the chairmans Aston Martin for week or whatever is enough to motivate anyone. Hell, I'll play for Gretna if it means I could have an Aston for a wee while!!!

[Timmy]

Geez give Gretna a go in the Champions League.

They could be a chance.

well...maybe not, but they definitely sound like a good side.

[JimProdz]

Originally Posted by JimProdz

... Gretna are right up there.

To sum up:
in their last 68 league games,
They have won 58, drawn 6, lost 4, scored 221, conceded 54.
Averaging over three goals a game over such a long period of time is great at this level,
and interestingly the letters of the word "great" can also be found in the club's name, Gretna!...

Hey there!

Well, to sum up,
That was last season,
A season of mist and sunshine,
But this season is the next season from that.

What I mean is, it's been a long time since I wrote that stuff above. It seems ages. I supposed I thought at one stage I would never add to this thread again.
Oh man, I thought this thread would be condemned to the vault of digitallyimported's neglected archives forever

BUT NO!

There is fresh life in the thread!
For Gretna have somehow continued that run of averaging over 3 goals per game
Right up until now,
The moment I wrote this.

They have now gone 98 league games averaging (in fact) exactly 3 goals per game. So in other words that run will be 100 games at a 3 goal average for Gretna if they win their next game 6-0, or basically score at least 6 in the next two games.

It doesn't really matter what they concede as far as that record I have highlighted is concerned.

These then are the "that-record-facilitating" possibilities:

Right. 2 games.

If neither team scores more than 10... then let Gretna = Gret,
let their opponents = Opp. Here:


GAME 1

...................Gret.........Opp........

1........................10..........0,1,2...throu gh.10
2........................9 ..........0,1,2...through.10
3........................8 ..........0,1,2...through.10
4........................7 ..........0,1,2...through.10
5........................6 ..........0,1,2...through.10
6........................5 ..........0,1,2...through.10
7........................4 ..........0,1,2...through.10
8........................3 ..........0,1,2...through.10
9........................2 ..........0,1,2...through.10
10........................1..........0,1,2...throu gh.10
11........................0..........0,1,2...throu gh.10

ALREADY there are 121 permutations for the first game.

GAME 2


1........................10..........0,1,2...throu gh.10
2........................9 ..........0,1,2...through.10
3........................8 ..........0,1,2...through.10
4........................7 ..........0,1,2...through.10
5........................6 ..........0,1,2...through.10

Those 55 permutations definitely allowed.
So what about the others?

Well I'm not so sure. I don't care actually,
But basically right,
If Gretna score 5 in the first game then all their permutations where they score 0 in the second game are invalid;
And if they score 4 in the first game then all their permutations in the second game where they score 0 OR 1 are invalid... and so on I suppose.

[JimProdz]

That last entry can actually have this sound conclusion:

Within the frame guideline above,
There are at the very least well over 55 multiplied by 121

= 6655

ways they can go 100 games, 300 goals.

Or basically, it's looking like well over 7000 ways of doing it.

But the only thing I have yet to discover is:

How many ways are there for them to score less than 6 goals in these 2 games?

THESE 2 REMAINING GAMES OF THE 100.

THE REMNANT.

Of course, the CHANCES of the permutations would have to be taken into account too. Many variables would decide these chances.


YAY!

STATS

[JimProdz]

Originally Posted by JimProdz

GAME 1

...................Gret.........Opp........

1........................10..........0,1,2...throu gh.10
2........................9 ..........0,1,2...through.10
3........................8 ..........0,1,2...through.10
4........................7 ..........0,1,2...through.10
5........................6 ..........0,1,2...through.10
6........................5 ..........0,1,2...through.10
7........................4 ..........0,1,2...through.10
8........................3 ..........0,1,2...through.10
9........................2 ..........0,1,2...through.10
10........................1..........0,1,2...throu gh.10
11........................0..........0,1,2...throu gh.10

ALREADY there are 121 permutations for the first game.

Well seeing as I've started.
Let's call those numbers reading down the left hand column "number things", or "n"s.

Let 1n be the n for game 1,
Let 2n be the n for game 2. Creative sure but hey.

1n is definitely 1 through 11.

[But if 1n = 6, then 2n can unfortunately only be 1 though 10.
If 1n = 7, then 2n can unfortunately only be 1 through 9.
If 1n = 8, then 2n can unfortunately only be 1 through 8.
If 1n = 9, then 2n can unfortunately only be 1 through 7.
If 1n = 10, then 2n can unfortunately only be 1 through 6.
If 1n = 11, then 2n can unfortunately only be 1 through 5.]

So, furthermore (re the PREVIOUS entry),

Taking into account [boxy bit],

And IFF this is right (I think it is),

There are actually precisely 12100 ways out of a possible 14641
Given the "no more than 10 goals for either side" stabilising factor.

That may even mean their chances are about 6 in 7... pretty good... but I do not dare believe that...but I dare dream it.

[JimProdz]

The best I can surmise Gret's actual chances in terms of probability is:

For a handsome 296 goals in 100 games;
likely.
For 295 goals in 100 games;
less impressive, but more likely. In fact very, very likely (to get AT LEAST that). Currently they're on 294 in 98 games.

297 to 300 goals... as a target by the end of this 100 game period...

a fair chance but by absolutely no means whatsoEVER is there any guarantee. Obviously the only "certainty" apparent to me is that they score 0 goals or more, but that's not so interesting.

[JimProdz]

Superb!

[JimProdz]

The 20th day of January (GMT) is when game 100 in this series now under my scrutiny will be played.

[JimProdz]

Please,
PLEEEAAAASSSSE
Gretna,
Win both games
BY
LOTS OF GOALS!
Pleeease!

[DJ Mallorca]

Jim er..........

put down the crackpipe dude!

[JimProdz]

Gretna are well good man! Even if they don't make it 300 goals in 100 games by 20th Jan this year, I'd still be pleased merely with their season in division 3 (old division 4) where they averaged around 4 goals a game at home.

[JimProdz]

Originally Posted by JimProdz

There are actually precisely 12100 ways out of a possible 14641
Given the "no more than 10 goals for either side" stabilising factor.

That may even mean their chances are about 6 in 7... pretty good... but I do not dare believe that...but I dare dream it.

We'd better analyze that "12100 ways out of possible 14641" bit closely, as it may prove misleading.

YES, there are many more ways for Gretna to see this record come to existence than for it not to happen, but the thing to remember is that the chances of one of those 12100 ways happening may not even be as good as one of the 2541 possibilities of them not quite managing it happening.

In fact I'd say it's more likely they won't manage it.
I'm really working myself up into a lather about this. I hope it doesn't affect my sleep.

[JimProdz]

Originally Posted by Juna

lol, so you're a Gretna fan I take it?! They're doing pretty well, it looks!

I personally think the best unbeaten run by any club is Arsenal's about 18 months ago. An entire season unbeaten in the Premiership. 49 games in all, and when they finally lost it was to their arch-rivals Man U!

It was a joy to watch them at their best. And I'm not even a Gunner's fan.

Indeed dude, that was a Steaua Bucharestesque run.

[JimProdz]

the 99th game of the series is over. a 2-2 draw.

That means they need 4 goals from their league match next weekend to make it to 300 goals in 100 matches.

I fear their chances are perilously slim of making that total, but jolly good luck to them anyway

[JimProdz]

At a guess I would say Gretna have a 1 in 5 chance of making me happy next Saturday.

[JimProdz]

Latest news, Gretna are 2-1 up. I don't think they'll make the record.

[JMax]

and you are trying to set the new record for sport fanatism?